On January 6, IDC released the top ten forecasts for China's PC market in 2021, including the popularization of high color gamut of consumer notebooks, the beginning of a new round of processor war, the large screen of notebook screens, etc.IDC said that 2021 will be the first year of a new round of war in the PC processor market. On the one hand, Intel will switch 11 generation CPUs on a large scale and more perfectly support AI, Wi Fi 6, Xe display and other functions.Amd continues to maintain its leading edge in the process; The M1 processor launched by Apple also allows the industry to reconsider the feasibility of arm architecture PC in the future; In addition, Qualcomm will promote the latest Xiaolong 888 processor in 2021, and its performance will be further improved.
In addition, domestic PC processors will also be greatly popularized in the government and other markets. All this indicates that the prelude to a new round of processor war has begun.In 2020, China's PC market affected by the epidemic was like a roller coaster. In the first quarter of 2020, China's PC market decreased by 28.1% year-on-year, but the year-on-year growth in the following three quarters was about 10% respectively.Therefore, IDC predicts that China's PC market will grow by 1.7% in 2020. It was a milestone year for the first time after eight consecutive years of negative growth.
The following are the top ten forecasts of China's PC market in 2021:Forecast 1:With the popularization of high color gamut of consumer notebooks, with the improvement of PC heavy application attributes, consumers' requirements for screen quality have significantly improved. It is estimated that more than 65% of consumer notebooks will be equipped with high color gamut screens in 2021 (NTSC 72% or sRGB 100% or more).
Forecast 2:Special notebooks for primary and secondary school students. The epidemic has accelerated the use of computers for primary and secondary school students such as online learning. In 2021, the shipment of computers for auxiliary learning for primary and secondary school students will reach about 8.8 million, which is about six times the demand of K12 in 2019 and nearly 1 / 3 of the scale of consumer PC market. With the stable growth of the market in the future, manufacturers will also launch exclusive primary and secondary school computers.Forecast 3:
A new round of processor war begins. 2021 will be the first year of a new round of war in the PC processor market. On the one hand, Intel will switch 11 generation CPUs on a large scale and more perfectly support AI, WiFi 6, Xe display and other functions. Amd continues to maintain its leading edge in the process; The M1 processor launched by Apple also allows the industry to reconsider the feasibility of arm architecture PC in the future; In addition, Qualcomm will promote the latest Xiaolong 888 processor in 2021, and its performance will be further improved. In addition, domestic PC processors will also be greatly popularized in the government and other markets. All this indicates that the prelude to a new round of processor war has begun.
Forecast 4:The notebook screen is larger. With the notebook becoming lighter and thinner, customers are looking for a larger screen to improve the customer experience. Therefore, there will be a downward trend in the notebook market of 13 inch and below in 2021, and more customers will turn to the notebook market of more than 14 inch.Forecast 5:
With the grading and integration of game notebooks, the proportion of RTX graphics cards in game books will reach about 40% in the fourth quarter of 2020, which leads to the gradual division of the game book market into two sub markets: competitive high-end game books represented by RTX graphics cards and ordinary game books represented by GTX graphics cards. It is expected that this two-level differentiation will continue in the first half of 2021. With the price reduction of RTX in the second half of 2021, the game notebook will usher in a new wave of integrated development.Forecast 6:As more and more manufacturers launch cloud PC solutions, whether the front-end computing power will decline has become an important topic. At present, in the next three years, PC scenarios will increasingly focus on heavy productivity application scenarios. Cloud computing will effectively share the problem of insufficient front-end computing power, but the improvement of front-end computing power is still the core direction in the next three years.
Forecast 7:Touch screen, with the growth of digital natives, more young consumers are used to multiple modes of interaction. Voice, video, touch, etc. In 2023, more than 10% of laptops will support touch, 10% will support voice education and 7% will support visual interaction.Forecast 8:
The competition pattern of subversion and defense. With the rebound of the PC industry caused by the impact of the epidemic and localization, more manufacturers will consider increasing PC sales business in 2021. They subvert through killer applications or quickly enter the market through their own customer relations. On the other hand, traditional global PC manufacturers still have strong R & D, product and scale advantages. In the next three years, 50% of new entrants will withdraw from the PC market due to acclimatization, and some intermediate PC manufacturers will experience periodic business decline.Forecast 9:Digital native enterprises drive the new demand for PC. IDC divides commercial enterprises into four categories: Digital driven, digital native, public following and sticking to stereotypes. In recent years, more new enterprise business models have been built on the basis of digitization, the number of digital original biochemical enterprises has increased significantly, and PC has helped enterprises transform in many aspects such as future culture, future labor force and future space. It is estimated that the demand growth rate of digital native enterprises for PCs will exceed 20% in 2021.
Forecast 10:Online and offline integrated development. In 2020, 41% of PCs will be sold online, and the proportion of e-commerce is increasing, which has changed the marketing mode of China's overall channel system. In 2021, more than 35% of offline retail stores will open stores in e-commerce to enrich their sales channels. Online and offline coupling marketing has become a new idea in the future.